assurance game

The Evolution of Cooperation

One Sentence Summary:
"The objective of this enterprise is to develop a theory of cooperation that can be used to discover what is necessary for cooperation to emerge."
Disciplines:
Political Science
Sociology
Findings:
  • The emergence of cooperation can be seen as a consequence of agents pursuing their own interests. It is not necessary to assume that those agents are more honest, more generous, or more cooperative per se.
  • What makes it possible for cooperation to emerge is the fact that the agents might interact again. The choice made now of whether or not to cooperate will affect choices made in later interactions. This called the 'shadow of the future.' The shadow of the future can exist even when the participants are unaware of it, as is the case in biological cooperation (symbiosis).
  • No best rule exists independently of the strategy being used by others. Despite this fact, robust strategies, useful in many contexts, are possible.
  • The evolution of cooperation requires high levels of reciprocal interactions between agents. The absolute number of agents can be small as long as their interactions are numerous.
  • Communities of cooperation, once established, can protect themselves from 'invasion' by less cooperative strategies. "The gear wheels of social evolution have a ratchet."
  • The winning tit-for-tat strategy:
    1. Don't be envious. Don't compare your success to others, only to your own strategic possibilities, i.e. are you employing the best strategy you have?
    2. Don't be the first to defect. Cooperate as long as others are cooperating.
    3. Reciprocate both cooperation and defection. Enforcing the rules is as important as playing by them.
    4. Be transparent. In order for others to coordinate their choices with yours, they have to understand your behavior. Keep it simple and out in the open.
  • Ways to promote cooperation:
    1. Enlarge the shadow of the future. Increase the permanence of cooperative choices or the frequency of interactions.
    2. Change the payoffs. Make the long-term incentives to cooperate greater than the short-term incentives to defect.
    3. Socialize reciprocal cooperation as a norm. Teach people to cooperate first.
    4. Improve collective memory. Collective memory, or culture, is embedded in institutions. Provide access to collective memory.
  • The foundation of cooperation is the durability of the relationship, which allows agents to learn about each other in order to cooperate.
Keywords:
assurance game
agent-based model
communication
cooperation
norms
prisoners dilemma
reciprocity
reputation
security
tit-for-tat
trust
Author(s) / Editor(s):
Published in:
Basic Books
Date:
August 1, 1985
One Paragraph Summary:

Why do people (or other actors) cooperate? "The objective of this enterprise is to develop a theory of cooperation that can be used to discover what is necessary for cooperation to emerge." It uses the Prisoner's Dilemma as a framework for testing theories about balancing self-interest and competition.

One Page Summary:

Chapter 1, The Problem of Cooperation. Why do people (or other actors) cooperate? "The objective of this enterprise is to develop a theory of cooperation that can be used to discover what is necessary for cooperation to emerge." It uses the Prisoner's Dilemma as a framework for testing theories about balancing self-interest and competition.

"In the Prisoners' Dilemma, the strategy that works best depends directly on what strategy the other player is using and, in particular, on whether this strategy leaves room for the development of mutual cooperation."

Chapter 2, TIT FOR TAT. "The iterated Prisoners' Dilemma has become the E. Coli of social psychology," yet people have not paid much attention to how to play the game well. Axelrod organized a computer tournament to which people familiar with PD submitted programs encoding different strategies. The winner was one of the simplest, TIT FOR TAT.

Axelrod then constructed an environment in which different programs competed, and the losing programs were eliminated: this was an ecology that rewarded high scoring programs, and punished others. "This process simulates survival of the fittest. A rule that is successful on average with the current distribution of rules in the population will become an even larger proportion of the environment of the other rules in the next generation. At first, a rule that is successful with all sorts of rules will proliferate, but later as the unsuccessful rules disappear, success requires good performance with other successful rules." In other words, the competition gets tougher.

"The analysis of the tournament results indicate that there is a lot to be learned about coping in an environment of mutual power. Even expert strategists from political science, sociology, economics, psychology, and mathematics made the systematic errors of being too competitive for their own good, not being forgiving enough, and being too pessimistic about the responsiveness of the other side."

The tournaments reveal that "there is a single property which distinguishes the relatively high-scoring entries from the relatively low-scoring entries. This is the property of being nice, which is to say never being the first to defect."

TIT FOR TAT's rules for success:

  • Be nice. Don't be the first to go on the attack. This demonstrates good will, and avoids provoking others.
  • Retaliate. If others attack, retaliate. Not doing so encourages bad behavior and gives niceness a bad reputation.
  • Be forgiving. If others defect but then go back to cooperating, accept the opportunity to move back to a cooperative mode.
  • Be clear. Others can predict what you'll do, be certain that their moves will have definite outcomes. "There is an important contrast between a zero-sum game like chess and a non-zero-sum game like the iterated PD. In chess, it is useful to keep the other player guessing about your intentions. The more the other player is in doubt, the less efficient will be his or her strategy. But in a non-zero-sum setting it does not always pay to be so clever. In the iterate PD, you benefit from the other player's cooperation."

Chapter 4, Trench Warfare. During World War I, "live and let live" arrangements emerged spontaneously between opposing units on the Western Front. Cooperation could take hold because "the same small units faced each other in immobile sectors for extended periods of time." Consequently, they had a more sustained relationship than in mobile warfare, and could develop commonly-understood rules, reciprocity and restraint in attacks, displays of strength (e.g., snipers shooting at hard targets)as well as ethics (recognition that there was an arrangement and violating it was immoral) and rituals (e.g., regular artillery firing).

"Cooperation first emerged spontaneously in a variety of contexts, such as restraint in attacking the distribution of enemy rations, a pause during the first Christmas in the trenches, and a slow resumption of fighting after bad weather made sustained combat almost impossible. These restraints quickly evolved into clear patterns of mutually understood behavior, such as two-for-one or three-for-one retaliation for actions that were taken to be unacceptable."

Chapter 6, How to Choose Effectively. Four suggestions about how to do well in PD:

  • Don't be envious. In a PD, "envy is self-destructive. Asking how well you are doing compared to how well the other player is doing is not a good standard unless your goal is to destroy the other player." However, in an iterated prisoner's dilemma, you can't do better than the other player, unless they're always suckers. "In a non-zero-sum world you do not have to do better than the other player to do well for yourself. The other's success is virtually a prerequisite of your doing well for yourself."
  • Don't be the first to defect (be nice). "It pays to cooperate as long as the other player is cooperating." In a short game, defection can make sense; but in a relationship, taking advantage of the other person is self-defeating.
  • Reciprocate both cooperation and defection. TIT FOR TAT "does not destroy the basis of its own success. On the contrary, it thrives on interactions with other successful rules." However, the right level of forgiveness depends on the context, and the other players' strategies.
  • Don't be too clever. "In a zero-sum game, such as chess it pays for us to be as sophisticated and as complex in our analysis as we can. Non-zero-sum games are not like this. The other player can respond to your own choices. And unlike the chess opponent, the other player in a PD should not be regarded as someone who is out to defeat you." "There is an important contrast between a zero-sum game like chess and a non-zero-sum game like the iterated PD. In chess, it is useful to keep the other player guessing about your intentions. The more the other player is in doubt, the less efficient will be his or her strategy. But in a non-zero-sum setting it does not always pay to be so clever. In the iterate PD, you benefit from the other player's cooperation."

Chapter 7, How to Promote Cooperation. Promoting cooperation can be thought of as an exercise in tinkering with the variables in a PD. "As long as the interaction is not iterated, cooperation is very difficult. That is why an important way to promote cooperation is to arrange that the same two individuals will meet each other again, be able to recognize each other from the past, and to recall how the other has behaved until now."

  • Enlarge the shadow of the future. For cooperation to emerge, players must be in a continuing relationship, with the expectation that it will continue in the future. "Mutual cooperation can be stable if the future is sufficiently important relative to the past." "There are two basic ways of doing this: by making the interactions more durable, and by making them more frequent. [P]rolonged interaction allows patterns of cooperation which are based on reciprocity to be worth trying and allows them to become established," Making interactions more frequent makes "the next interaction occur sooner, and hence the next move looms larger than it otherwise would." You might do this by enforcing isolation, or constructing hierarchies or organizations, which are "especially effective at concentrating the interactions between specific individuals."
  • Change the payoffs. Make defection less attractive, by enforcing laws, or growing the value of long-term incentives.
  • Teach people to care about each other.
  • Teach reciprocity. Reciprocity "actually helps not only oneself, but others as well. It helps others by making it hard for exploitative strategies to survive."
  • Improve recognition abilities. "The ability to recognize the other player from past interactions, and to remember the relevant features of those interactions, is necessary to sustain cooperation. Without these abilities, a player could not use any form of reciprocity and hence could not encourage the other to cooperate."

Chapter 8, The Social Structure of Cooperation.
The social structure of cooperation involves labels, reputation, regulation, and territoriality.

  • Labels are fixed characteristics of an agent that are observable by other agents. Labels affect reciprocity and retaliation via assumptions of group similarity and stereotypes.
  • Reputation is others' belief about the strategies an agent will employ. Reputation may be based on past behavior or on rumours, i.e. reputation can be accurate or merely believed. Reputation affects whether or not other agents will cooperate or defect with you.
  • Regulation involves setting the stringency of a standard of behavior "high enough to get most of the social benefits of regulation, and not so high as to prevent the evolution of a stable pattern of voluntary compliance from almost all of the companies" (or regulated agents).
  • Territoriality refers to both physical and conceptual spaces that can be 'invaded' by agents of differing strategies. Territoriality establishes boundaries within which behaviors will be reinforced or retaliated against depending on prevailing norms. Also, the boundary provides an 'inside' for agents that comply with the norms, and an 'outside' to which they can be expelled if they do not comply.

Chapter 9, The Robustness of Reciprocity.

  • Cooperation can get started by even a small cluster of individuals who are willing to reciprocate cooperation, even in a world where no one else will cooperate.
  • Once cooperation is establish, it protects itself from invasion by non-cooperative strategies.
  • The foundation of cooperation is the durability of the relationship, which allows agents to learn about each other in order to cooperate.

Social Dilemmas: The Anatomy of Cooperation

One Sentence Summary:
Kollock provides a literature review and taxonomy of social dilemma models and social dilemma solutions, as well as current issues and future directions of studying social dilemmas.
Disciplines:
Sociology
Findings:
  • Social dilemmas reflect a ‘deficient equilibrium’ because there is at least another outcome in which everyone is better off, but nobody has an incentive to change their behavior. Shaping and managing incentives is critical for shifting out of situations of deficient equilibrium. It's an equilibrium because two players, in the absence of certainty about how the other is going to act, choose the least damaging strategy for themselves -- assuming that the other will defect – and their strategies, taken together, represent a logical balance. It's a deficient balance because if they each had chosen to cooperate, their strategies, taken together, would have paid off better for both.
  • If you reward individuals, they have less incentive to work as a group, but if you reward only the group, they have no choice but to work for the common goal.
  • Moving from 2 person to N person dilemmas crosses a threshold in which anonymity becomes possible and free riding becomes more significant because not all actions are transparent to all actors. As N increases the costs one can impose on those who fail to cooperate are diffused and diluted, thus having less impact.
  • Three mythic narratives have shaped research and thinking about social dilemmas: the prisoner’s dilemma, the creation of public goods, and the tragedy of the commons. While these narratives can limit our thinking, they point to three critical challenges for overcoming social dilemmas: developing trust to secure transactions, overcoming the “social fence” of incurring immediate individual cost to generate a shared benefit (or public good), and overcoming the temptation to obtain immediate individual benefit that produces a shared cost for others.
  • The role of communication is significant in shaping cooperation with the context of prisoner’s dilemmas. Information gathering about behaviors, explicit promises regarding future behavior, persuasion, and the ability to establish group identity are all critical communication activities that increase the likelihood of cooperation.
  • The expectation of reciprocity can effect situations and moderate temptations to defect (free ride or abuse commons). The expectation of in-group reciprocity (if you think someone is going to participate, you will) seems to serve as a very deep heuristic that shapes strategic decisions about social dilemmas.
  • Cooperation rates are tied to payoff structures; changing the payoff structure or clearly communicating it can change the level of cooperation. Cooperation rates increase as payoffs increase, even when they just increase for others. If a dilemma is structured such that individuals have an effect on the outcome, the cooperation rate can increase.
  • Transforming social dilemmas is sometime more effective, and easier, than trying to solve them as they exist. For example, increasing communication or sense of affiliation (group identity) can transform a prisoner’s dilemma to an assurance game and increase the likelihood of cooperation. Looking for way to transform the context and nature of the dilemma is another important path for solving social dilemmas.
  • Some people are, by nature, more likely to trust others. In order to solve both the first-order dilemma (how to agree to organize collective action) and the second order dilemma (who’s going to police the agreement), you need both kinds of people: the more trusting people are necessary in order to make an agreement, and the less trusting people are necessary in order to police the agreement.
Keywords:
assurance game
communication
cooperation
equilibrium
prisoners dilemma
public goods
trust
Author(s) / Editor(s):
Published in:
Annual Review of Sociology, 24: 183-214
Date:
August 1998
One Paragraph Summary:

The study of social dilemmas is the study of the tension between individual and collective rationality. In a social dilemma, individually reasonable behavior leads to a situation in which everyone is worse off. The first part of this review is a discussion of categories of social dilemmas and how they are modeled. The key two-person social dilemmas (Prisoner’s Dilemma, Assurance, Chicken) and multiple-person social dilemmas (public goods dilemmas and commons dilemmas) are examined. The second part is an extended treatment of possible solutions for social dilemmas. These solutions are organized into three broad categories based on whether the solutions assume egoistic actors and whether the structure of the situation can be changed: Motivational solutions assume actors are not completely egoistic and so give some weight to the outcomes of their partners. Strategic solutions assume egoistic actors, and neither of these categories of solutions involve changing the fundamental structure of the situation. Solutions that do involve changing the rules of the game are considered in the section on structural solutions. [Kollock] concludes the review with a discussion of current research and directions for futurework.

One Page Summary:

“The study of social dilemmas is the study of the tension between individual and collective rationality. In a social dilemma, individually reasonable behavior leads to a situation in which everyone is worse off. The first part of this review is a discussion of categories of social dilemmas and how they are modeled.” The Prisoner’s Dilemma, the problem of providing public goods, and Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons are three powerful metaphors that facilitated and structured research but also served as blinders since their limitations are often not recognized.

Models:

Kollock’s analysis divides dilemmas into two-person and N-person dilemmas. The key two-person dilemmas are the Prisoner’s Dilemma, the Assurance Game, and the Chicken Game. Each of these models is defined by the ordering of four possible outcomes: mutual cooperation, mutual defection, and either first or second person’s unilateral defection. Each of these outcomes generates an individual benefit for each person and is ordered by the benefit for the first person.

The Prisoner’s Dilemma models unsecured transactions, e.g. buying and selling over the Internet. The best outcome of a Prisoner’s Dilemma is unilateral defection of the first person, followed by mutual cooperation, mutual defection, and the worst outcome is the first person’s unilateral cooperation. Since defection has the highest potential benefit and cooperation the highest potential risk, the equilibrium of the Prisoner’s Dilemma is mutual defection. This equilibrium is deficient because the best outcome for both players is mutual cooperation.

The Assurance Game is similar to the Prisoner’s Dilemma except it models situations where mutual cooperation is more benefical for each player than unilateral defection, e.g. a project that requires collaboration. This extra motivation to mutually cooperate creates two equilibria, one optimal, which is mutual cooperation, and one deficient, which is mutual defection. The optimal equilibrium requires trust between the two persons sufficient to assure each other that the other will cooperate. Insufficient trust leads to the deficient equilibrium.

The Chicken Game is again similar to the Prisoner's Dilemma except mutual defection is the worst outcome, worse than unilateral cooperation. This replaces the Prisoner’s Dilemma’s mutual defection equilibrium by two equilibria, unilateral defection and unilateral cooperation because of the strong motivation to not mutually defect. The Chicken Game is a model for situations that require volunteer effort to avoid the worst outcome but where duplicate effort is less desirable.

Kollock divides N-person dilemmas into two types based on cost and benefit for each individual. The first type is known as the social fence,s where an individual is presented with an immediate cost that generates a benefit shared by all. The individual wants to avoid the cost but if all do, everyone is worse off. A common metaphor of the social fence is the provisioning of public goods, which are (to a varying degree) non-excludable and nonrival. The key characteristic of a public good dilemma is the production function which defines the relationship between the level of resources contributed and the level of public good provided. Production functions are classified into decelarating, linear, accelerating, and step functions. Various production functions can produce N-person versions of any of the 2-person dilemmas.

The second type is know as social trap where the “individual is tempted by an immediate benefit that produces a cost to all. If all succumb to the temptation, the outcome is a collective disaster.” The usual metaphor of the social trap is the tragedy of the commons. A key feature of commons dilemmas is that the benefits are non-excludable (or difficult to make excludable) and subtractable. The key characteristic of commons dilemmas is the carrying capacity of the commons which depends on the replenishment rate of the subtractable joint resource.

Important (but not inevitable) features that affect N-person dilemma dynamics and contrast them to two-person dilemmas are anonymity, diffusion of defection cost, and little or no direct control on others. Some of these features are also found in two-person dilemmas, e.g. blaming defection on out-of-control circumstances is a form of anonymity in two-person games.

Solutions:

“The second part of [Kollock’s paper] is an extended treatment of possible solutions for social dilemmas. These solutions are organized into three broad categories based on whether the solutions assume egoistic actors and whether the structure of the situation can be changed: Motivational solutions assume actors are not completely egoistic and so give some weight to the outcomes of their partners. Strategic solutions assume egoistic actors, and neither of these categories of solutions involve changing the fundamental structure of the situation. Solutions that do involve changing the rules of the game are [called] structural solutions.”

The motivation of not completely egoistic actors to cooperate is influenced by social value orientation, communication, and group identity. The social value orientation of a person seems to be acquired from the person’s social environment and is some linear combination of a cooperator who tries to maximize joint outcome, a competitor who tries to maximize own outcome relative to partner, and an individualist who tries to maximize own outcome. Kollock does not find any conclusive results in how to influence social value orientation but does find evidence that it varies between different countries.

The presence of communication positively affects cooperation rates. Communication enables a person to find out about others’ choices, to make explicit commitments, to appeal to what is the moral thing to do, and most importantly, to create or reinforce a sense of group identity. The effect of group identity is in fact so strong that it can affect cooperation rates even in the absence of communication. In-group behavior of individuals frequently includes personal restraint and treating Prisoner’s Dilemma situations as Assurance Games. However, in-group behavior implies out-group behavior with the potential to cause severe social costs due to intergroup conflicts.

“[Strategic solutions] rely on the ability of [egoistic] actors to shape to shape the outcomes and hence behavior of other actors. For this reason, many of these strategic solutions are limited to repeated two-person dilemmas.” Axelrod (see The Evolution of Cooperation) identifies three requirements for strategic solutions: ongoing relationships between actors (i.e. all expect shared dilemmas in their future), ability to identify each other, and ability to keep track of the other’s past behavior.

The most successful strategy in iterative Prisoner’s Dilemma tournaments (everyone against everyone) that meet these requirements is Tit-for-Tat which starts out with cooperation and then matches the partner’s previous behavior. This strategy transforms a repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma into a repeated Assurance Game since the only long-term outcome of this strategy is either mutual cooperation or mutual defection (the two equilibria of the Assurance Game). Key aspects of successful strategies in repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma tournaments are (1) to realize that it is not a zero-sum game hence does not benefit from a competitive social orientation (“don’t be envious”), (2) to not defect first, (3) to reciprocate both cooperation and defection, and (4) to be predictable so that the partner clearly understands one's strategy. One important caveat is that repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma tournaments assume perfect communication. In real life where communication is often imperfect more generous or forgiving strategies can avoid accidental cycles of recrimination.

Recent evidence suggests that the strategy of choosing partners is more important than the strategy used within a dilemma. In a modified version of iterative Prisoner’s Dilemma tournament actors can exit current relationships and choose alternative partners. A very successful strategy in this environment is Out-for-Tat which exits a relationship as soon as the partner defects. A more forgiving version that gives a defecting partner a second chance is even more successful.

Strategies for N-person dilemmas involve grim triggers, social learning, and group reciprocity. In a “grim trigger” strategy an individual only cooperates if all other group members cooperate and defects as soon as one other group member defects. Social learning is the basis of a cognitively less taxing class of strategies that involves imitating other group members and look for thresholds in public good provisioning instead of calculating marginal rates of return or figuring out dominating strategies. Group identity increases cooperation rates because group members follow strategies that assume that all members share a strong expectation of group reciprocity (reciprocity within the group).

Structural solutions change the rules of the dilemma thereby changing or eliminating it. One approach is to reinforce prerequisites for strategic solutions by introducing long-term accountability (shadow of the future) that influences individual reputations. However, accountability and reputation are not sufficient to escape the Prisoner’s Dilemma’s equilibrium of mutual defection (in two- or N-person version) if the means to encourage cooperation are too weak (e.g. production function for public good too flat or too much effort required to reach provisioning point).

Many people seem to positively weigh others’ outcomes since cooperation increases significantly as the benefits to others from one’s cooperation increase. Cooperation levels are also higher if group members are asked to contribute to a non-divisible public good that only benefits the whole group, probably due to an increased sense of group identity (see group reciprocity).

Cooperation in N-person dilemmas increases if individual contributions have (or are perceived to have) a discernable effect, i.e. make an efficacious contribution. For public goods with step-level production function one can create a minimal subgroup that requires every member to contribute in order to reach the provisioning point or let two groups compete for contributions, turning an N-person Prisoner’s Dilemma into an N-person Chicken Game. Another example are "matching grants" or "adopting" an individual from a large group of benefactors.

Increasing group size makes defection more anonymous and increases the cost of organizing. However, research results on cooperation depending on group size alone are inconclusive. In the case of highly non-rival goods with a threshold production function a larger group is more likely to contain a "critical mass" of cooperating individuals. Diversity of group members' interests and resources encourages formation of critical mass.

A common structural strategy for N-person dilemmas is the creation of boundaries in an attempt to make public goods or commons more excludable. There are three main approaches: The first one is to institute an external authority or trusted leader to govern access to commons. This approach appears to be less preferable if other structural changes are possible. Establishing an external authority can raise severe problems of justice, enforcement, corruption, and scalability. The second approach is to break up commons into private parcels assuming that individuals will take better care of own property than common property. However, privatization does not work for non-divisible goods, raises the social question of who gets to own commons, does not prevent owners to routinely destroy their own property (“tragedy of enclosure”), and requires institutional support to enforce private property rights. A third approach is to locally regulate “access to and use of common property by those who actually use and have local knowledge of the resource.” One key characteristic of successful and long-lasting local regulations is clearly defined boundaries.

Sanctions are a structural method to encourage cooperation where the outcomes themselves of N-person dilemmas are too weak of a motivator. However, the implementation of sanctions can be very expensive. Local monitoring and sanctioning systems are more practical and less costly. Another way to reduce cost is to use a graduated system of sanctions with low-cost conflict resolution. A sanctioning system is itself a public good and therefore poses a second-order dilemma. Communities with a high level of trust readily cooperate in a first-order dilemma but cooperate less in a second-order dilemma hence are less willing to support a sanctioning system. The opposite is true for communities with a high level of distrust.

Modeling Robust Settlements to Civil War: Indivisible Stakes and Distributional Compromises

One Sentence Summary:
From mathematical modeling of the risk factors and uncertainty involved in a party’s continued conflict, withdrawal from conflict or commitment to a peace agreement, the distributional aspects surrounding civil war negotiations are shown to determine the robustness and range of potential settlements; the actual moves of conflicting parties in civil wars are found to reflect the dynamics of game theoretical models.
Disciplines:
Economics
Political Science
Findings:
  • Sanctioning trade of illicit commodities is recommended to reverse its negative effects on brokering a settlement.
  • Outcome uncertainty, as is common in the tumult of a civil war, results in less robust settlements, but can be counteracted with diplomatic efforts to increase confidence in the mutual-compliance settlement. Positive personal interactions between top leaders of conflicting parties and confidence inspired by mediators will facilitate finding the optimal distributional terms. Power sharing arrangements, such as decentralization of power into sub-national units and guaranteed numbers of positions for minority groups, can lessen the impact of uncertainty resulting from post-war elections.
  • Parties can limit the variation of post-war outcomes by arranging market institutions to counteract variation that might come about in post-war policy-making. For instance, a conflict between one side that represents the interests of labor and one of capital could be buffered with a constitutional focus on the rights to private property and to strike. In South Africa and El Salvador, promotion of economic interdependence between parties was encouraged by elites to safeguard their freedom of choice for investment.
  • Although the hope is that a self-enforcing cooperative strategy of withdrawal is sustainable without external enforcement, third party actors can assist by forming and monitoring institutions that promote revenue sharing. The implementation of such a plan is often difficult and can be complicated by the limiting factors of war-time benefits. As of the writing of the article the role of international actors in monitoring the distribution of revenue was being discussed in Sudanese peace negotiations.
Keywords:
assurance game
civil society
equilibrium
prisoners dilemma
Author(s) / Editor(s):
Published in:
Santa Fe Institute: Working Papers
Date:
October 2003
One Paragraph Summary:

In the absence of a decisive military advantage, self-enforcing peace settlements are still possible in a civil war. Wood explores the conditions under which parties will not necessarily renege in the absence of external enforcement, regarding settlements which distribute post-war political power and economic resources. Self-enforcing settlements rely on each party surpassing a “critical belief threshold” wherein the best response becomes to compromise for peace given the other party’s likelihood to compromise. In other words, the critical belief threshold is surpassed by altering the structure of payoffs so as to change the conflict from a Prisoner’s Dilemma to an Assurance Game. Continuing to fight can be a self-enforcing strategy, as is seen in real conflicts when war-time benefits like illicit trade are not reproducible in times of peace. The range of potential settlements is the set of distributional arrangements in which the critical belief threshold is surpassed for both parties. The robustness of a settlement refers to its ability to withstand the exogenous shocks that often occur and influence the confidence of parties in the peace process. Wood identifies a way to craft a peace settlement so that it is optimally robust, by examining where the belief thresholds for all parties intersect along potential distributions. She introduces as a variable in the conflict the perceived degree of indivisibility of stakes, as stakes in real conflicts are often not totally divisible or indivisible and the actor’s perceptions play a large role. Perceptions of indivisibility of goods reduce the range and robustness of potential settlements. Examples of partially indivisible stakes include holy sites, strategic locations and network systems, wherein control is not worth very much until the party controls a lot of it. Factions often arise within a party when there are differing opinions on the payoff of a settlement and similarly lead in the theoretical model to decreases in the range and robustness of settlements.

Foundations of Human Sociality (Introduction and Overview)

One Sentence Summary:
Experiments like the Ultimatum Game and the Public Goods Game (one shot games for real money divided among strangers) that have been conducted in different countries all over the world have shown that group behavior frequently does not fit the traditional model of self-interested actors, that it is too richly varied between cultures to support a universal sense of fairness, and that a higher degree of market integration and higher payoffs to cooperation can be linked to greater levels of prosocial behavior.
Disciplines:
Economics
Sociology
Psychology
Findings:
  • People are willing to reward fairness and reciprocity and punish those who do not act pro-socially, even at cost to themselves.
  • Group-level differences in behavior proved to be greater than individual-level differences, indicating cooperative behavior might be more embedded in cultural conditions than was previously thought. While one culture might take advantage of a person who is too altruistic, another might exclude a person for being too self-interested.
Keywords:
trust
reputation
reciprocity
public goods
prisoners dilemma
game theory
equilibrium
cultural evolution
cooperation
communication
assurance game
altruism
Published in:
Oxford University Press
Date:
2004
One Paragraph Summary:

The self-regarding and outcome oriented picture of human behavior presented in traditional economics does not explain why humans care so much about each other and about how social interaction is carried out, not just the end goals. The Ultimatum Game, designed by Werner Guth, is just one illustration of how real people will not always follow the dictates of self-interested rationality. Two subjects are given a sum of money, one is given the power to divide the sum, and the other can either accept or reject (in which case neither get any money). Research from conducting hundreds of trials of the game with thousands of students in Europe, Japan and the USA has shown that the responders frequently reject low offers and proposers frequently propose near equal divisions, even though it is to their monetary disadvantage. While early experiments on undergraduates seemed to suggest that there was a universal sense of fairness, extended research in different cultures (hunter-gatherers, slash-and-burn agriculturists, nomadic pastoralists) has exposed much cultural variation in responses, indicating that local cultural conditions play an important role in how people approach cooperation.

One Page Summary:

The self-regarding and outcome oriented picture of human behavior presented in traditional economics does not explain why humans care so much about each other and about how social interaction is carried out, not just the end goals. The Ultimatum Game, designed by Werner Guth, is just one illustration of how real people will not always follow the dictates of self-interested rationality. Two subjects are given a sum of money, one is given the power to divide the sum, and the other can either accept or reject (in which case neither get any money). Research from conducting hundreds of trials of the game with thousands of students in Europe, Japan and the USA has shown that the responders frequently reject low offers and proposers frequently propose near equal divisions, even though it is to their monetary disadvantage. While early experiments on undergraduates seemed to suggest that there was a universal sense of fairness, extended research in different cultures (hunter-gatherers, slash-and-burn agriculturists, nomadic pastoralists) has exposed much cultural variation in responses, indicating that local cultural conditions play an important role in how people approach cooperation.

While mean proposals for university students from all over the world was usually between 42 and 48 percent, mean proposals from this cross-cultural study varied from 25 to 57 percent. Rejection rates, the action of the responders, also varied considerable between groups. Individual-level economic and demographic variables did not explain behavior as well as group-level behavior, and game play often could be connected to the people's common patterns of interaction. For example, the Orma recognized that one of the experiment's games was similar to the harambee, a local institution of giving to public goods like roads and schools. They began calling it 'the harambee game' and displayed highly prosocial behavior. In other groups, like the Au and Gnau, frequent rejection of generous offers can be explained by a cultural association with gift-giving: accumulating gifts, even if unsolicited, can imply a lowered status and force the receiver into future obligations or political alliance. The cross-cultural study showed that, in the case of groups at the extremes of behavior, "contrasting behaviors seem to reflect their differing patterns of everyday life, not any underlying logic of hunter-gatherer life ways."

The effect of market integration on cooperation to obtain a monetary reward can be explained easily: individuals from market-oriented societies when put in the context of one of the games are able to seek analogues in their daily activities of using and trading money with strangers. "Those who do not customarily deal with strangers in mutually advantageous ways may be more likely to treat anonymous interactions as hostile or threatening, or as occasions for the opportunistic pursuit of self-interest."

Evolution of Indirect Reciprocity

One Sentence Summary:
Cooperation through indirect reciprocity, captured by the phrase "I help you, someone else helps me", requires the evolution of reputations and communication of those reputations among the larger group (as in the human instinct to gossip), cognitive abilities beyond being able to identify relatives (required for kin selection) or the individuals who have cooperated with you in the past (required for direct reciprocity).
Disciplines:
Economics
Sociology
Psychology
Findings:
  • "The hypothesis that more information leads to more cooperation has been confirmed in experiments, which compare three information conditions. In one condition, players have no information about their co-players; in the second they are told about what their co-players have decided when last in the role of a donor; and in the third they also know about the score of the recipient of the co-player. We note that this is not always enough to decide whether a previous defection was justified or not. However, the additional knowledge did enhance cooperation."
  • "Indirect reciprocity is situated somewhere between direct reciprocity and public goods. On the one hand it is a game between two players only, the donor and the recipient, but on the other hand it has to be played within a larger group. Richard Alexander claimed that indirect reciprocity originates from direct reciprocity in the presence of interested audiences."
  • "It is easy to conceive that an organism experiences as 'good' or 'bad' anything that affects the organism's own reproductive fitness in a positive or negative sense. The step from there to judging, as 'good' or 'bad', actions between third parties, is not obvious. The same terms 'good' and 'bad' that are applied to pleasure and pain are also used for moral judgements: this linguistic quirk reveals an astonishing degree of empathy, and reflects highly developed faculties for cognition and abstraction."
  • Even a group of players with discriminating strategies can be sidetracked by imperfect transfer of reputation information, as in unfounded rumors or exaggeration: "if players have different views about the reputation of others, then errors in perception can undermine cooperation."
  • In empirical studies, discriminating players are sensitive to their own score: "players who justifiably refuse to donate to a defector show an increased tendency to provide donations in the following round, as if to make up for that refusal. This indicates that they expect their refusal to lower their score in the co-players' eyes and that they do not rely on the community's understanding."
Keywords:
agent-based model
altruism
assurance game
communication
cooperation
equilibrium
game theory
language
norms
prisoners dilemma
public goods
punishment
reciprocity
reputation
tit-for-tat
trust
Author(s) / Editor(s):
Published in:
Nature 437, 1291-1298
Date:
October 27, 2005
One Paragraph Summary:

Cooperation through indirect reciprocity, can be captured by the phrase "I help you, someone else helps me". Indirect reciprocity helps explain how cooperation is possible at all when economic transactions move beyond small villages where one can easily keep track of one's interactions with everyone else. The success of strategies of indirect reciprocity in empirical studies might be attributable to the fact that humans care so deeply not only about how they are treated, but about the results of interactions between third parties. This concern and the desire to communicate concerns, or gossip, might in turn be explained by evolutionary psychology and the benefits of cooperation in large groups, surpluses resulting from division of labor. To test strategies of indirect reciprocity no two players can interact more than once and the scores of players (the portion of times they have cooperated with others) must be visible. A player choosing a simple version of indirect reciprocity will only cooperate with those whose score is above a certain threshold. However, this player might be punishing another player using indirect reciprocity who has only interacted with defectors. "Effectively, discriminating players pay a cost for punishing bad co-players. Such a form of altruistic punishment can promote cooperation in the community, but at a cost to the punisher, and thus can be viewed as a social dilemma." A more sophisticated strategy would have a player discriminate between justified defection (defecting to punish someone who always defects) and unjustified defection (defecting regardless of the recipients reputation). This strategy avoids the case where a group of players who always cooperate is invaded by a group of players who always defect, but it requires the cognitive abilities to keep track of interactions that are far removed from one's own.

Coalitional Effects on Reciprical Fairness in the Ultimatum Game: A Case from the Ecuadorian Amazon

One Sentence Summary:
Patton attributes differences between two Ecuadorian ethnic/political groups in their willingness to cooperate in the Ultimatum Game to the groups' "differences in coalitional stability, perceptions of trust, and needs to maintain reputation," and emphasizes properties of the groups' political environment over individual differences.
Disciplines:
Anthropology
Political Science
Findings:
  • Market integration in nonwesternized cultures might have had a negative impact on cooperation by introducing unequal access to goods and conflict between western institutions and local nonhierarchical structures. The more market-integrated group (and the one described as more cooperative), the Quichua, proposed significantly smaller divisions compared to the Achuar. This poses a counterexample to a hypothesis presented in the Overview to this book, that market integration means frequent interactions and a familiarization with the process of cooperating with strangers, which translates into cooperation in the Ultimatum Game.
  • The most important factor in cooperation during the game was group coalition strength, over the much less significant or near significant factors of sex, age, and social status. Alarmingly high homicide rates among males in the area magnify the importance of coalition strength. "Coalitional instability undermines one's ability to condition future play, and discounts the benefits derived from investing in the creation and maintenance of a reputation as a fair player."
  • Longstanding habits of reciprocal fairness that flourish in politically stable environments overrode factors that would otherwise tempt self-interested behavior, such as the anonymous and one-shot properties of this Ultimatum Game.
Keywords:
reciprocity
game theory
cooperation
capitalism
assurance game
altruism
reputation
social capital
trust
Author(s) / Editor(s):
Published in:
Oxford University Press
Date:
2004
One Paragraph Summary:

This study examined patterns of cooperative behavior of two ethnic/political groups in Conambo of the Ecuadorian Amazon, the Achuar and the Quichua, with the Ultimatum Game. The participants were randomly divided into proposers and responders. Proposers were told to divide 20 coins worth a total of a days labor (approximately $3.85) into two piles, one for them and one for the responders. The proposer then left the room and a responder was brought in, not knowing the identity of their proposer, and asked to accept or reject the division (rejection of the division entailed no money for either participant, aside from the 5 coins given to all at the start for their time). A successive pile technique was used to determine the alliance strength of all participants. Informants were asked to divide photographs of the participants according to who would be most reliable in maintaining a coalition during a conflict. The researchers found that proposers with higher average alliance strength gave more generous offers and that the Achuar, with higher average alliance strength, had an average proposal of 42.9 percent, while the Quichua, with lower average alliance strength, had an average proposal of 24.6 percent. "The relationship between average alliance strength and amounts offered appears to be a group effect rather than an individual effect."

Measuring Social Norms and Preferences Using Experimental Games: A Guide for Social Scientists

One Sentence Summary:
In addition to self-interested behavior, various experimental games have been able to quantifiably demonstrate behavior with preferences for altruism, equality and reciprocity, reflections of a human dedication to social norms even at personal cost.
Disciplines:
Economics
Sociology
Psychology
Findings:
  • One benefit of game experiments is that they are relatively comparative across subject pools and cultures (at least as comparative as most qualitative experiments) and easily replicable.
  • Experimental evidence supports theories of "altruistic punishment," in which the visibility of punishment for free-riders increases the level of cooperation in a population.
  • Future social preferences theories should attempt to explain pro-social behavior with one model across multiple games and make predictions that can be tested and falsified.
  • Evolution equips people with the cognitive ability to learn social norms and resulting strategies rather than having them hard-wired into the brain. This enables humans to create institutions for generating public goods, even at the expense of individual contributors.
Keywords:
punishment
public goods
prisoners dilemma
game theory
equilibrium
assurance game
altruism
reciprocity
reputation
trust
Author(s) / Editor(s):
Published in:
Oxford University Press
Date:
2004
One Paragraph Summary:

The seven games explored here, ultimatum, public goods, dictator, prisoner's dilemma, trust, gift-exchange, and third party punishment, can be used both as metaphor to describe prototypical situations in the social world and as a tool to predict the behavior of players in the context of other players' likely actions. Data on the responses of real players can help guide the formation of successful and sustainable institutions for collective action. In a public goods game, for instance, contributions to the public good declined over repeated periods as cooperative players eventually became frustrated with an instigating group of free-riders. Once the structure of the game is altered to allow for punishment of free riders, the average contribution rises steeply to over 95 percent of the endowment. The actual rate of punishment does not have to be that high to generate this increase either; "the mere threat of punishment, and the memory of its sting from past punishments, is enough to induce potential free riders to cooperate."

One Page Summary:

The seven games explored here, ultimatum, public goods, dictator, prisoner's dilemma, trust, gift-exchange, and third party punishment, can be used both as metaphor to describe prototypical situations in the social world and as a tool to predict the behavior of players in the context of other players' likely actions. Data on the responses of real players can help guide the formation of successful and sustainable institutions for collective action. In a public goods game, for instance, contributions to the public good declined over repeated periods as cooperative players eventually became frustrated with an instigating group of free-riders. Once the structure of the game is altered to allow for punishment of free riders, the average contribution rises steeply to over 95 percent of the endowment. The actual rate of punishment does not have to be that high to generate this increase either; "the mere threat of punishment, and the memory of its sting from past punishments, is enough to induce potential free riders to cooperate."

Another alteration that increases cooperation is permitting communication. "Communication allows the conditional cooperators to coordinate on the cooperative outcome and it may also create a sense of group identity." In the trust game, an investor gives an amount to a trustee, which is tripled and the trustee can give any amount from all to nothing back to the investor. Positive reciprocity, a sense of obligation to repay trusting investors that arises in the trust game, is an important key to harnessing cooperation. Implicit social contracts built on the basis of positive reciprocity are cheaper to implement and can be more successful than explicit contracts.

The environment of our evolutionary adaptation can theoretically explain the origin of these preferences in repeated game settings. Evolution equips people with the cognitive ability to learn social norms and resulting strategies rather than having them hard-wired into the brain. This accords with the game theory conclusion that the best strategy depends on the structure of social relations and potential for norms to take hold and be effective.

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